My completely unsolicited guide to the Oscar nominees
I certainly do not consider myself a ‘film buff’ by any stretch. (The enormous list of classic, canonical films I have not seen stands as evidence of this.) But I try my best to keep up on contemporary films, which I mostly do in the months prior to the Oscars, especially once the nominees are released. It’s our annual goal to see all the Best Picture films before the Oscars, and we usually get around 9/10 of those, or sometimes all of them. (This year doesn’t have 10 nominees, though, which is interesting in itself.) It’s usually a pretty nice way to get through the dreary winter months—though it has been far from dreary down here in the GNV.
This year has obviously been bizarre for films. I think we saw maybe…two?…in the theater before things were shut down. And for a long while—March to June or so—there wasn’t really any clear plan in place for most of the bigger-budget/higher-profile films to be released. Eventually, most studios seemed to figure out that releasing films through Amazon, Netflix, Hulu, etc. was a path for success; and some others just found ways to release them through their own studio websites, which was maybe slightly less accessible, but it worked.
Anyway, as a result of it being considerably less expensive to (legally!) see the slate of films this year, we’re pretty well caught up (with a couple exceptions). Below, I run through who I think should win, who I think will win (for better or worse), and say a bit about the films/performances in the category.
I hope you enjoy.
Best Picture:
Should win: Minari or Nomadland
Will win: Mank (regrettably)
Minari is absolutely one of the most tender films I’ve seen in a while. (First Cow had a similar vibe, but was completely snubbed this year.) It’s a beautiful portrait of a family adapting to changes, trying to (literally and figuratively) plant seeds in unfamiliar and potentially hostile soil, and growing together. The little boy in this film is beyond adorable.
Nomadland was also exceptional. It follows Frances McDormand (more on her in a second) as Fern, a woman who lives out of her van and travels the country in search of work/community/anything meaningful. The film sort of broke my heart in a number of places, but it’s also just a nice meditation on late capitalism and the struggle to survive in an ostensibly wealthy country.
Promising Young Woman was, well, a lot of things. It’s sort of a revenge thriller, but also a comedy, and probably mostly a drama. It will not inspire confidence in men as a group, I can assure you of that. I enjoyed every bit of this. Carey Mulligan absolutely puts on a clinic. Like, unbelievably good range.
Sound of Metal is about a young metal drummer who suddenly goes deaf, and the film chronicles his coping response to this change, including his relationships with the deaf community, his partner, and himself. The sound design here was spectacular; it’ll definitely win the sound design awards. Riz Ahmed was great as a panicked, uncertain, and punk rocker.
Judas and the Black Messiah was one of several Oscar films that explored Black history (though the others—Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami weren’t up for Best Picture). The story in J&TBM was complex and frustrating in all the right ways: forceful and unrelenting FBI agent coerces unwitting criminal (William O’Neal) to infiltrate the Black Panthers, after which O’Neal becomes enamored with their leader and goals, but it’s too late for him to fully switch sides. Tense and absorbing.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 was quintessential Aaron Sorkin. Long-winded—probably too long-winded for its own sake—but never light on the dramatic elements that make him such a success. The story is also incredibly frustrating (and involves considerable crossover with J&TBM). Another chapter of our history that I knew nothing about.
Mank was just extraordinarily boring. I couldn’t wait for it to be over. We briefly paused it at the midway part, and I was *shocked* to learn that we still had over an hour left. Excrutiating. David Fincher is usually good; this was disappointing. And yet, because it’s about Hollywood, it will almost certainly win Best Picture.
Haven’t yet seen The Father (it comes out for streaming next week). Can’t imagine it would dramatically alter my judgments above, but we’ll see.
Best Actor:
Should win: I’d be happy with Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey), or Steven Yeun (Minari)
Will win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey)
I already commented on Riz Ahmed above; and I already mentioned how great Minari was, which was due in no small part to Steven Yeun’s performance. But I think Chadwick Boseman is a lock for this, and not just because he’s recently deceased. He truly puts in an incredible performance, even if I didn’t really enjoy the film all that much. It felt clear to me that he knew this could be his last time on screen and gave it everything he had.
Again, haven’t seen The Father, so I can’t comment on Anthony Hopkins. Gary Oldman might’ve performed well in Mank; I don’t really know how to judge this independent of the fact that the movie was, as I said, dull.
Best Actress:
Should win: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Will win: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
I’d honestly be happy with either of these, but, again, I think Carey Mulligan absolutely hit it out of the park in PYW. Her range, even within a single scene, was jaw-droppingly good. Frances McDormand performed spectacularly in Nomadland as well, though; I think there the task was at least partly to convey the sense of balancing optimism and struggle, which she did successfully. (Though that’s sort of in her wheelhouse, isn’t it? Three Billboards had a similar vibe.)
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey) was solid; haven’t seen Andra Day in The US vs. Billie Holliday or Vanessa Kirby in Piece of a Woman, so I can’t comment on those.
Best Supporting Actor:
Should win: One of the Judas & the Black Messiah guys
Will win: One of the Judas & the Black Messiah guys—probably Daniel Kaluuya
It was surprising to me that both Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield got Supporting nominations, since I’d have thought that Kaluuya would’ve been Best Actor instead of Supporting. At any rate, I’d bet money on one of them, probably Kaluuya, to win it.
Let me also note that Paul Raci really shined in Sound of Metal, though I don’t think it was the best supporting performance of the year. Sacha Baron Cohen was great in TotC7, and he might well win (he won the Golden Globe). But I’d prefer it in one of the J&tBM guys’ hands. Oh, and Leslie Odom Jr. was solid in One Night in Miami (even if I thought that movie was only sort of okay).
Best Supporting Actress:
Should win: Maria Bakalova (Borat)
Will win: Honestly no clue. Probably Olivia Colman? Maybe Amanda Seyfried?
Okay, so I know the Borat sequel seemed a bit silly, and it was. I enjoyed it, though; and I thought Maria Bakalova did an amazing job, particularly given the constraints of her character and the improvisational environments she was in. It was truly impressive, and she will surely have a long and successful career.
I also want to say that for as much as people crapped on Hillbilly Elegy, I actually thought the movie was kind of…not that bad? And really, whatever you thought of the movie, it was clear that Glenn Close performed exceptionally well as the curmudgeonly grandma. I think people let their politics govern their viewing of this film—which, sure, more power to you—but I tend to think the performances here were much better than the narrative itself.
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) was fantastic; Amanda Seyfried was in a truly boring film so I can’t really say whether she performed well; haven’t seen Olivia Colman in The Father yet.
***
I’ll stop there. I don’t have strong feelings about most of the other awards. I’ll look forward to seeing who wins them all, though. And there are still some movies to catch up on, so maybe some of my judgments would shift a bit. But overall, I feel pretty confident in the above.
Let me close by mentioning briefly a few significant snubs.
Already noted First Cow, which was completely shut out despite being just really good, tender, and well crafted.
I don’t know that it’s a snub so much as a surprise, but I’m Thinking of Ending Things didn’t make the cut anywhere. The film itself was a bit of a mess, though; but typically Charlie Kaufman does reasonably well at these things, I thought?
Again, not sure it was a snub, per se, but I thought The Assistant was a great, but exceptionally tense film; and Julia Garner should have probably gotten a Best Actress nomination. Her role is so subtle, careful, and nuanced. (You might not know her by name, but she’s Ruth from Ozark. She is obviously great in that, and she’s as good, if not better, in The Assistant.)
Okay, that’s all. Thanks for indulging me. Please let me know if you vehemently disagree with any of these picks, if you take any of these as recommendations and liked them, or whatever else! Happy Oscars season, y’all!
—JVD